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By Guy Ryder, Director General, International Labour Organization (ILO)
The human dimensions of the COVID-19 pandemic reach far beyond the critical health response. All aspects of our future will be affected - economic, social and developmental. Our response must be urgent, coordinated and on a global scale, and should immediately deliver help to those most in need.
From workplaces, to enterprises, to national and global economies, getting this right is predicated on social dialogue between governments and those on the front line – the employers and workers. So that the 2020s don’t become a re-run of the 1930s.
ILO estimates are that as many as 25 million people could become unemployed, with a loss of workers’ income of as much as USD 3.4 trillion. However, it is already becoming clear that these numbers may underestimate the magnitude of the impact.
This pandemic has mercilessly exposed the deep faultiness in our labour markets. Enterprises of all sizes have already stopped operations, cut working hours and laid off staff. Many are teetering on the brink of collapse as shops and restaurants close, flights and hotel bookings are cancelled, and businesses shift to remote working. Often the first to lose their jobs are those whose employment was already precarious - sales clerks, waiters, kitchen staff, baggage handlers and cleaners.
In a world where only one in five people are eligible for unemployment benefits, layoffs spell catastrophe for millions of families. Because paid sick leave is not available to many carers and delivery workers - those we all now rely on – they are often under pressure to continue working even if they are ill. In the developing world, piece-rate workers, day labourers and informal traders may be similarly pressured by the need to put food on the table. We will all suffer because of this. It will not only increase the spread of the virus but in the longer-term dramatically amplify cycles of poverty and inequality.
We have a chance to save millions of jobs and enterprises, if governments act decisively to ensure business continuity, prevent layoffs and protect vulnerable workers. We should have no doubt that the decisions they take today will determine the health of our societies and economies for years to come.
Unprecedented, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are essential to prevent the current headlong downturn from becoming a prolonged recession. We must make sure that people have enough money in their pockets to make it to the end of the week – and the next. This means ensuring that enterprises -- the source of income for millions of workers -- can remain afloat during the sharp downturn and so are positioned to restart as soon as conditions allow. In particular, tailored measures will be needed for the most vulnerable workers, including the self-employed, part-time workers and those in temporary employment, who may not qualify for unemployment or health insurance and who are harder to reach.
As governments try to flatten the upward curve of infection, we need special measures to protect the millions of health and care workers (most of them women) who risk their own health for us every day. Truckers and seafarers, who deliver medical equipment and other essentials, must be adequately protected. Teleworking offers new opportunities for workers to keep working, and employers to continue their businesses through the crisis. However, workers must be able to negotiate these arrangements so that they retain balance with other responsibilities, such as caring for children, the sick or the elderly, and of course themselves.
Many countries have already introduced unprecedented stimulus packages to protect their societies and economies and keep cash flowing to workers and businesses. To maximise the effectiveness of those measures it is essential for governments to work with employers’ organizations and trade unions to come up with practical solutions, which keep people safe and to protect jobs.
These measures include income support, wage subsidies and temporary layoff grants for those in more formal jobs, tax credits for the self-employed, and financial support for businesses.
But as well as strong domestic measures, decisive multilateral action must be a key stone of a global response to a global enemy. The G20’s virtual Extraordinary Summit on the Covid-19 response on 26 March is an opportunity to get this coordinated response going.
In these most difficult of times, I recall a principle set out in the ILO’s Constitution: Poverty anywhere remains a threat to prosperity everywhere. It reminds us that, in years to come, the effectiveness of our response to this existential threat may be judged not just by the scale and speed of the cash injections, or whether the recovery curve is flat or steep, but by what we did for the most vulnerable among us.
TETUM
COVID-19 HATUDU FRAJILIDADE ITA NIA EKONOMIA
Hosi Guy Ryder, Diretor Geral, International Labour Organization (ILO)
Dimensia umana ba pandemia COVID-19 la’os deit responde ba saude ne’ebe kritiku. Aspetu hotu-hotu ba futuru sei afeita – ekonomia, sosial no dezenvolvimento. Ita tenki responde ho urjensia, koordena iha nivel mundial no mos imideatamente fo suporta ba sira ne’ebe presija liu.
Hosi servisu fatin too ba emprezas, ekonomia nasional no global, atu bele responde ba ida ne’e presija liu hosi dialogu sosial entre governu no sira ne’ebe servisu iha linha dahuluk hanesan empregadores no traballadores. Atu nune’e 2020 la repete saida maka akontese iha 1930.
Estimasaun ILO katak mais ou manus ema 25 milhoens bele sai dezempregu ka lakon sira nia servisu, ida ne’e sei rejulta halakon rendimentu ho montante $3.4 triliun. Maibe ita komesa haree katak estimasaun numeru ida ne’e ladun refleta impaktu ne’ebe iha ona.
Pandemia ida ne’e hatudu erru boot iha merkadu traballu. Empreza iha nivel hotu-hotu hapara operasaun, hamenus oras servisu no mos hapara kontratu servisu. Barak maka laran moras no triste ba dezastre ida ne’e hodi taka lojas no restaurantes, kansela viajen ho aviaun, kansela otel sira ne’ebe rezerva ona no mos muda negosiu hodi servisu remotas deit. Dala-barak hirak ne’ebe lakon sira nia servisu uluk maka sira ne’ebe nia servisu laiha garantia ka vulneravel hanesan resepsionista, waiters, ema ne’ebe servisu iha dapur ka tein, sira ne’ebe servisu iha aeroportu no toma konta ba bagazen no mos cleaner ka hamos rai.
Globalmente iha ne’ebe ema ida deit hosi nain lima maka elijivel ba benefisiu dezempregu, demisaun sai hanesan dezastre boot ba familia hamutuk kuaze milloens. Pensaun tamba moras la iha ba kareira no servisu barak, sira ne’ebe ita barak mak depende ba, dala barak sira servisu ho presaun maske iha kondisaun moras. Iha nasaun sira ne’ebe sei dezenvolve, traballdores sira ne’ebe hetan osan bazeia ba saida maka sira produs, sira ne’ebe hetan selu iha kada loron, komersiante informal sira, hetan mos presaun oin-sa sira bele fornese hahan ba nia familia. Ita hotu-hotu sei sofre tamba pandemia ida ne’e. Ida ne’e sei la aumenta deit virus ne’ebe hadaet maibe iha longo prazu dramatikamente fo implikasaun ba siklu pobreza no desigualidade.
Ita iha oportunidade hodi salva milhoens servisu no emprezas, se wainhira governu foti asaun konkretu hodi garante kontinuasaun servisu, prevene ema hodi lakon servisu no mos proteje traballador sira ne’ebe vulneravel. Klaru katak desizaun ne’ebe sira foti ohin loron sei determina saude ba ita nia sosiedade no mos ekonomia iha futuru.
Politika fiscais no monetaria espansionista importante tebes hodi prevene krize agora hodi rezulta resesaun ba tempu naruk. Ita tenki garante katak ema iha osan natoon hodi bele uza durante semana ida – no ba semana tuir mai. Ida ne’e signifika garante katak emprezariu ka organizasaun – ne’ebe sai nudar fonte rendimentu ba traballadores milhoens hodi mantein nafatin iha tempu krize ida ne’e, no mos pronto hodi halao operasaun fila-fali wainhira kondisaun permite. Partikularmente, sei presiza medidas ida ne’ebe espesifiku ba traballadores sira ne’ebe vulneravel, inklui sira ne’ebe ‘self-employed’, ‘part-time’ no mos sira ne’ebe ho kontratu temporariu, ne’ebe karik la elijivel ba pensaun no ‘health insurance’ no mos sira ne’ebe susar atu liga ka hasoru.
Enkuantu governu koko hodi redus numeru infeksaun, ita presija medida espesial hodi proteje professional saude no mediku sira (barak maka feto) ida ne’ebe fo risku ba sira nia moris hodi koko salva ita loro-loron. Tenki fo protesaun adekuadu ba kondutor no marineiro sira ne’ebe transporta ekipamentu mediku no mos akipamentu importante sira seluk. Servisu iha uma fo oportunidade ba traballador sira hodi kontinua servisu no mos empregadores hodi kontinua sira nia negocio ka atividade durante krize. Maibe, traballadores sira tenki negosia hodi nune’e sira bele mantein balansu entre servisu ho responsabilidade sira seluk hanesan tau matan ba labarik, tau matan ba sira ne’ebe moras ka idozus no mos sira nia-an.
Nasaun barak maka aplika ona pakote estimulu balun hodi proteje sira nia sosiedade no ekonomia no mos garante kontinuasaun sirkulasaun osan ba traballadores no mos emprezas. Hodi bele halo ida ne’e efetivu liu tan, presija governu hodi servisu hamutuk ho emprezarios, organizasaun no sindikatu traballadores hodi bele buka solusaun efetivu, no garante seguransa ba komunidade nune’e mos proteje servisu.
Medidas hirak ne’e inklui suporta rendimentu, salario subsidario no mos fundu ba pensaun temporariu ba sira ne’ebe halao servisu ho kontratu formal, kreditu taxa ba emprezario sira no mos suporta finanseiru ba sira ne’ebe halao negosiu.
Alende medidas domestika ida ne’ebe forte, asaun multilateral sai nudar fundamentu ba responde global ba pandemia ida ne’e. Simeira Estraordinario G20 kona-ba COVID-19 ne’ebe halao virtualmente deit, iha loron 26 fulan Marsu nudar oportunidade hodi kontinua koordenasaun resposta ida ne’e hodi lao nafatin.
Iha tempu difisil ida ne’e, hau hanoin fila prinsipiu ne’ebe tau iha Konstituisaun ILO katak: Pobreza iha ne’ebe deit kontinua sai hanesan ameansa ba prospriedade iha fatin hotu-hotu. Ida ne’e fo hanoin ita katak, iha tinan hirak tuir mai, efetividade hosi ita nia resposta ba dezastre ida ne’e sei julga laos deit hosi eskala no velosidade injesaun orsamentu, ka numeru rekuperasaun oituan ka barak, maibe liu hosi saida maka ita halo ba grupu vulneravel sira.